Publications from the Projects

2020:

Daniel, Volker/ter Steege, Lucas: Inflation Expectations and the Recovery from the Great Depression in Germany, Explorations in Economic History 75 (2020) Article 131305 (revised version; see also Working Paper Series of the SPP 1859, No 6)

 

2019:

Behrens, Christoph (2019): Evaluating the Joint Efficiency of German Trade Forecasts. A nonparametric multivariate approach. Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 “Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour” No 9 (March), Berlin

Cross, Gary; Köhler, Ingo u. Logemann, Jan, Beyond the Mad Men: Consumer Engineering and the Rise of Marketing Management, 1920s-1970s – An Introduction, in: dies. (ed.), Consumer Engineering 1920s-1970s. Marketing between Expert Planning and Consumer Responsiveness (Worlds of Consumption Series), New York: Palgrave 2019, S. 1-20.

Daniel, Volker (2019): Expectations and the Media in Times of Economic Crises: 3 Empirical Investigations Utilizing Text as Data, Halle/Salle University: Dissertation 

Fastenrath, Florian (2019): The Political Economy of the State-Finance Nexus. Public Debts, Crisis and Bank Business Models, Cologne University: Dissertation.

Horn, Sebastian / Reinhart, Carmen / Trebesch, Christoph (2019): China’s Overseas Lending. Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 “Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour” No 11 (September), Berlin 

Köhler, Ingo, Imagined Images, Surveyed Consumers. Market Research as a Means of Consumer Engineering, 1950s-1980s, in: Gary Cross; Ingo Köhler u. Jan Logemann (Hg.), Consumer Engineering 1920s-1970s. Marketing between Expert Planning and Consumer Responsiveness (Worlds of Consumption Series), New York 2019, S. 191-212.

Meyer, Josefin / Reinhart, Carmen / Trebesch, Christoph (2019): Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo. Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 “Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour” No 12 (October), Berlin

Neumayer, Andreas (2019): Investors and Investment Behavior in Germany, 1869-1955, Hohenheim University: Dissertation.

Rohloff, S. (2019): Commodity prices and the AUD-Yen exchange rate: A real-time forecasting analysis. Applied Economics 51: 1360-1382.

 

2018:

Behrens, C./Pierdzioch, C/M. Risse (2018): A Bayesian Analysis of the Efficiency of Growth and Inflation Forecasts for Germany. Arbeitspapier.

Behrens, C./Pierdzioch, C./Risse, M. (2018): A Test of the Joint Efficiency of Macroeconomic Forecasts Using Multivariate Random Forests. Journal of Forecasting 37: 560−572.

Behrens, C./Pierdzioch, C./Risse, M. (2018): Testing the Optimality of Inflation Forecasts Under Flexible Loss with Random Forests. Economic Modelling 72: 270−277.

Bonato, M./Demirer, R./Pierdzioch, C./Gupta, R. (2018): Gold Futures Returns and Realized Moments: A Forecasting Experiment Using a Quantile-Boosting Approach. Resources Policy 57: 196−212.

Daniel, Volker/Neubert, Magnus/Orban, Agnes: Fictional expectations and the global media in the Greek debt crisis: A topic modeling approach. Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour" No 4 (March), Berlin (published in Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte/Economic History Yearbook 59 (2/2018), pp. 525–566

Daniel, Volker/ter Steege, Lucas (2018): Inflation Expectations and the Recovery from the Great Depression in Germany. Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour" No 6 (March), Berlin 

Fastenrath, Florian/Orban, Agnes/Trampusch, Christine: From Economic Gains to Social Losses: How Stories Shape Expectations in the Case of German Municipal Finance, in: KZfSS Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie 70 (2018), Supplement 1, pp. 89–116

Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle/Streb, Jochen (2018): Discrimination against Foreigners. The Wuerttemberg Patent Law in Administrative Practice. Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour" No 7 (September), Berlin

Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle/Streb, Jochen: Does Social Security Crowd Out Private Savings? The Case of Bismarck’s System of Social Insurance, in: European Review of Economic History 22 (2018), pp. 298-321

Lenel, Laetitia (2018): Futurama. Business Forecasting and the Dynamics of Capitalism in the Interwar Period. Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 “Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour” No 3 (January), Berlin

Lenel, Laetitia: Mapping the Future. Business Forecasting and the Dynamics of Capitalism in the Interwar Period, in: Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte/Economic History Yearbook 59 (2/2018), pp. 377-413.

Neumayer, Andreas: There’s No Place Like Home. Investors’ Home Bias in Germany, 1898-1934, in: Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte/Economic History Yearbook 59 (2/2018), pp. 447–469

Pahlow, Louis/Rassow, Verena: Marktprognosen im Interesse der Strukturpolitik. Fusionskontrollverfahren vor dem Bundeskartellamt in den 1970er und 1980er Jahren, in: Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte/Economic History Yearbook 59 (2/2018), pp. 343–376.

Pierdzioch, C./Reid, M.B./Gupta, R. (2018): On the Directional Accuracy of Inflation Forecasts: Evidence from South African Survey Data. Journal of Applied Statistics 45: 884−900.

Pindl, Kathrin: Grain Policies and Storage in Southern Germany: The Regensburg Hospital  (17th-19th Centuries), in: Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte/Economic History Yearbook 59 (2/2018), pp. 415–445

Piro, Katerina: Kinderwunsch im Krieg: Kriegserfahrung und Fertilität in Deutschland im Zweiten Weltkrieg, in: Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte/Economic History Yearbook 59 (2/2018), pp. 471–505

 

2017:

Döpke, Jörg/Fritsche, Ulrich/Pierdzioch, Christian: Predicting recessions with boosted regression trees, in: International Journal of Forecasting 33 (2017), pp. 745-759

Döpke, Jörg/Fritsche, Ulrich/Waldhof, Gabi (2017): Theories, techniques and the formation of German business cycle forecasts. Evidence from a survey among professional forecasters. Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 “Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour” No 2 (July), Berlin

Fritsche, Ulrich/Pierdzioch, Christian: Animal spirits, the stock market, and the unemployment rate: Some evidence for German data, in: Economics Bulletin 37 (2017), 1, pp. 204-213

 

2016:

Köhler, Ingo/Schulze, Benjamin: Resilienz. Unternehmenshistorische Dimensionen der Krisenrobustheit am Beispiel deutscher Brauereien in den 1970er Jahren, in: Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte/Economic History Yearbook 57 (2/2016), pp. 455-491

Pierdzioch, C./Reid, M.B./Gupta, R. (2016): Forecasting the South African Inflation Rate: On Asymmetric Loss and Forecast Rationality. Economic Systems (2016) 40: 82−92.

Pierdzioch, C./Reid, M.B./Gupta, R. (2016): Inflation Forecasts and Forecaster Herding: Evidence from South African Survey Data. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics 62: 42−50.

 

Forthcoming:

Daniel, Volker/Peters, Robert: Greece and the media – A qualitative assessment of the news impact on credit conditions in the Greek debt Crisis, in (eds.) Peters, Robert/Altmann, Philip, “Complexity and Truth”, Special Issue of the Journal of Sociocybernetics 01/2018, ISA RC51, 20 pages. [forthcoming]

Pierdzioch, C./Gupta, R./Nyakabawo W./Risse, M. (im Druck): On REIT Returns and (Un-)Expected Inflation: Empirical Evidence Based on Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. Finance Research Letters.

Pierdzioch, C./Risse, M. (im Druck): Forecasting Precious Metal Returns With Multivariate Random Forests. Empirical Economics