Participating Scholars 2016-2019

Christoph Behrens M.Sc., Hamburg
- Macroeconomic Forecasting in Great Crises
Volker Daniel M.Sc., Halle a. d. S.
- Great Expectations? Germany's Recovery from the Great Depression, 1932-1936
Prof. Dr. Jörg Döpke, Merseburg
- Macroeconomic Forecasting in Great Crises
Dr. Florian Fastenrath, Duisburg (ehem. Köln)
- Municipalities and their Expectations on Pay-Offs of Swap Deals
Prof. Dr. Ulrich Fritsche, Hamburg
- Macroeconomic Forecasting in Great Crises
Prof. Dr. Timothy W. Guinnane, Yale
- (Associate) The Implications of Experience and Expectations for Demographic Decisions: Germany, 1871-2000
Sebastian Horn M. Sc, Worldbank (ehem. München & Kiel)
- Trends and Cycles in Sovereign Debt Markets 1800-2013: The Role of Risk and Expectations
Prof. Dr. Philip Jung, Dortmund
- Great Expectations? Germany's Recovery from the Great Depression, 1932-1936
PD Dr. Ingo Köhler, Göttingen
- Professional Prognosticators? Market Research and the Formation of Business Expectations in West Germany and the United States after 1945
Prof. Dr. Alexander Kriwoluzky, Halle a. d. S.
- Great Expectations? Germany's Recovery from the Great Depression, 1932-1936
Prof. Dr. Sibylle Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Stuttgart
- Expectations and experience: What governed investment in banking stocks (1897 to 1931)?
Laetitia Lenel M.A., Berlin
- Mapping the Future. A Euro-American History of Business Cycle Forecasting, 1920-1980
Armin Mertens M.A., Köln
- Municipalities and their Expectations on Pay-Offs of Swap Deals
Karsten Müller M.Sc., Merseburg
- Macroeconomic Forecasting in Great Crises
Andreas Neumayer M.Sc., Stuttgart
- Expectations and experience: What governed investment in banking stocks (1897 to 1931)?
Ricardo Neuner M.A., Konstanz
- Limited by Myopia? Economic Uncertainty and the International Regulation of Sovereign Debt in Times of Crisis (1970-1997)
Prof. Dr. Alexander Nützenadel, Berlin
- Coordinator
- Mapping the Future. A Euro-American History of Business Cycle Forecasting, 1920-1980
Dipl.-Volkswirt Alexander Opitz, Stuttgart
- Expectations and experience: What governed investment in banking stocks (1897 to 1931)?
Dr. Agnes Janssen, Köln
- Municipalities and their Expectations on Pay-Offs of Swap Deals
Prof. Dr. Louis Pahlow, Frankfurt a. M.
- Competition as a subject of forecasts. The formation of expectations in merger control in the Federal Republic of Germany and the USA (1945-1989)
Prof. Dr. Christian Pierdzioch, Hamburg
- Macroeconomic Forecasting in Great Crises
Kathrin Pindl M.A., Regensburg
- Storage for subsistence. Regensburg´s hospital granary (17th - 19th centuries)
Katerina Piro M.A., Mannheim
- The Implications of Experience and Expectations for Demographic Decisions: Germany, 1871-2000
Prof. Dr. Werner Plumpe, Frankfurt a. M.
- Devaluation of Experience? Expectation Formation in Small and Medium-sized Enterprises in the Period of Economic Structural Change since the 1970s
Dipl.-Volkswirt Johannes Puckelwald, Hamburg
- Macroeconomic Forecasting in Great Crises
Verena Rassow, Frankfurt a. M.
- Competition as a subject of forecasts. The formation of expectations in merger control in the Federal Republic of Germany and the USA (1945-1989)
Prof. Carmen M. Reinhart, Cambridge (Mass.)
- (Associate) Trends and Cycles in Sovereign Debt Markets 1800-2013: The Role of Risk and Expectations
Patrick Reiter M.Sc., Aachen
- Past Energy Futures. Energy Projections and Decision-Making in the Electricity Sector since 1945
Prof. Dr. Laura Rischbieter, Konstanz
- Limited by Myopia? Economic Uncertainty and the International Regulation of Sovereign Debt in Times of Crisis (1970-1997)
Dr. Friederike Sattler, Frankfurt a. M.
- Devaluation of Experience? Expectation Formation in Small and Medium-sized Enterprises in the Period of Economic Structural Change since the 1970s
Prof. Dr. Michael Schneider, Düsseldorf
- Expecting Innovation: experiences and expectations as foundation of research strategies in the German iron and steel industry during the 20th century
Sebastian Schöttler M.Sc., Berlin
- Coordinators' assistant
Prof. Dr. Moritz Schularick, Bonn
- Great Expectations? Germany's Recovery from the Great Depression, 1932-1936
Prof. Dr. Mark Spoerer, Regensburg
- Storage for subsistence. Regensburg´s hospital granary (17th - 19th centuries)
Hendrik Steinbrecher M.Sc., Dortmund
- Great Expectations? Germany's Recovery from the Great Depression, 1932-1936
Prof. Dr. Jochen Streb, Mannheim
- Coordinator
- The Implications of Experience and Expectations for Demographic Decisions: Germany, 1871-2000
Prof. Dr. Paul Thomes, Aachen
- Past Energy Futures. Energy Projections and Decision-Making in the Electricity Sector since 1945
Prof. Dr. Christine Trampusch, Köln
- Municipalities and their Expectations on Pay-Offs of Swap Deals
Prof. Dr. Christoph Trebesch, Kiel (prev. München)
- Trends and Cycles in Sovereign Debt Markets 1800-2013: The Role of Risk and Expectations
Daniel Wylegala M.A., Düsseldorf
- Expecting Innovation: experiences and expectations as foundation of research strategies in the German iron and steel industry during the 20th century

News and upcoming events

Why did the passbook vanish in the US but survived in Germany during stagflation? Find out here in Sebastian Knake's newest working paper, no. 46 of the series.

In a new Working Paper, Alexander Foltas investigates the efficient integration of forecasters’ narratives into business cycle forecasts. Find it here!

In the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Laetitia Lenel traces the profound change in economic forecasting methods and their function throughout the 20th century. The article can be found here.

How have economic narratives structured economic imaginations and shaped econ. decision-making? The JMEH forum section on "Economic Narratives," edited by Alexander Nützenadel and Laetitia Lenel, offers some answers. Find it here.

In an article for the Heidelberg University magazine RUPERTO CAROLA, Christian Conrad and Zeno Enders discuss the challenges of inflation forecasting and possible lessons for the European Central Bank. Find the article here!

Laetitia Lenel was recently awarded the 2023 Otto-Hintze-Nachwuchspreis for her dissertation "The Hopeful Science. A Transatlantic History of Business Forecasting, 1920-1960". Congratulations!

Jochen Streb, Andreas Neumayer, and Sibylle Lehmann-Hasemeyer have a new publication out in the Journal of Banking & Finance titled "Heterogeneous inflation and deflation experiences and savings decisions during German industrialization". Find it here!

In our latest working paper, Alexander Foltas proposes a new approach for uncovering business cycle reports’ priorities and relating them to economic fluctuations. Find it here!

In our latest working paper, Benjamin Born, Zeno Enders, Manuel Menkhoff, Gernot Müller, and Knut Niemann study "how firm expectations adjust to news while accounting for a) the heterogeneity of news and b) the heterogeneity of firms." Find it here!

The latest edition of History of Political Economy deals with the topic of "Narrative in Economics: A New Turn on the Past." In her contribution to the volume, Laetitia Lenel explores the history of scenario drafting at the IMF in the 1970s and 1980s. Find it here!

In our latest working paper, Benjamin Born, Zeno Enders, and Gernot J. Müller revisit recent survey based evidence that challenges the FIRE (full-information rational expectations) assumption. They argue that this recent evidence is likely to be of lasting impact in adjusting models of the expectation-formation process. Find it here!

In the latest edition of the Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte (Economic History Yearbook), Ulrich Fritsche and Mark Spoerer preside over a series of contributions concerning the use of digital methods in history. This volume stems from an SPP-Workshop "Digital Methods in History and Economics" which took place last October. Find it here!

In our latest working paper, Sebastian Knake investigates the history of econometric models (and their variables) of the US savings deposit market from the 1960s to 1980s, and further interrogates the ways in which the demands for such models varied throughout this period. Read it here!

Sebastian Knake's essay on the history of the Spareckzins and its determination during the stagflation period (1967-83) was recently published in the April edition of the Vierteljahrschrift für Sozial- und Wirtschaftsgeschichte. Find it here!

Laetitia Lenel was awarded the Friedrich-Lütge-Preis of the German Society for Social and Economic History for her outstanding dissertation on the history of business forecasting. Congratulations!

In our latest working paper, David Barkhausen and Sebastian Teupe trace the history and construction of the contemporary understanding of the German inflation trauma. The following question serves as a point of departure: is this contemporary understanding as old as its historical point of reference (the experience of hyperinflation in 1923)? Finding evidence to the contrary, the authors' research helps to clarify origins and political uses of today's popular memory. Find the paper here.

In our latest working paper, Jonas Dovern, Alexander Glas, and Geoff Kenny assess the value of survey-based density expectations as compositional data when testing either for heterogeneity in density forecasts across different groups of agents or for changes over time. Find it here.

In our latest working paper, Jonas Dovern considers the utility of data from an online survey of German consumer expectations as an indicator of macroeconomic expectation uncertainty. Find it here.

In our newest working paper, Ulrike Malmendier considers the ways in which lived-experiences play a role in shaping our economic decision-making and beliefs, both among regular people and economic experts alike. Find it here.

In light of the ECB's recent announcement that it will improve its forecasting models, Christian Conrad points to the limitations of inflation forecasts in the FAZ.

Sebastian Teupe's book on the German inflation between 1914 and 1923 is out. Find it here!

In light of the current vacancies in the German Council of Economic Advisers, Lino Wehrheim takes a look at past debates about appointments to the Council in the FAZ.

In our newest Working Paper, Lino Wehrheim traces 70 years of Federal German public discourse via a Topic Modeling/Sentiment Perspective of Der Spiegel. Find it here.

The workshop "Economic Narratives in Historical Perspective" has taken place from April 28-29 at GHI London. For more details click here.

In our newest Working Paper, Sibylle Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Andreas Neumayer and Jochen Streb consider the heterogeneity of savers' inflation expectations during the German industrialization. Get it here!

Lino Wehrheim's article "The Sound of Silence. On the (In)visibility of Economists in the Media" has been published in the Vierteljahrschrift für Sozial- und Wirtschaftsgeschichte. Find it here.

You can find older announcements in our news archive.

Experience & Expectation ·
Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour

PP 1859

Priority Programme
1859

Priority
Programme
1859

Participating Scholars 2016-2019