Publications from the Projects


Lenel, Laetitia and Nützenadel, Alexander (eds). Forum Section on "Economic Narratives," Journal of Modern European History. With contributions by Frank Trentmann, Tiago Mata, Laetitia Lenel, Vanessa Ogle, Alexander Nützenadel, Trevor Jackson, and William H. Sewell, Jr.

Dovern, J., L. Müller, and K. Wohlrabe, "Local Information and Firm Expectations about  Aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, 138, 2023, 1-13. 

Born, B., J. Dovern, and Z. Enders, "Expectation Dispersion, Uncertainty, and the Reaction to News," European Economic Review, 154, 2023, 104440. 

Dovern, J., "Eliciting Expectation Uncertainty from Private Households," International Journal of Forecasting, 2023, forthcoming.

Sibylle Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Andreas Neumayer, Jochen Streb, "Heterogeneous inflation and deflation experiences and savings decisions during German industrialization," Journal of Banking & Finance,Volume 154, 2023.

Lenel, Laetitia. "Economists as Storytellers: Scenario Drafting at the International Monetary Fund", in: History of Political Economy 55.3 (2023), pp. 577-608.

Fritsche, Ulrich and Spoerer, Mark. "Introduction: Digital History" Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte / Economic History Yearbook, vol. 64, no. 1, 2023, pp. 1-7. 

Knake, Sebastian. "The Spareckzins: The Making of Germany's Most Important Price for Household Savings 1967-1983." VSWG Vierteljahrschrift für Sozial- und Wirtschaftsgeschichte Band 110, April 2023, Heft 1, pp 30-73.



Lukas Herget, "Der Europäische Gerichtshof als 'Motor der Integration'“, in: Themenportal Europäische Geschichte, 2022.

Buchheim, L., J. Dovern, C. Krolage, and S. Link, "Sentiment and Firm Behavior During the COVID-19 Pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 195, 2022, 186-198.

Keese, Alexander and Huber, Marie. "Introduction: State enterprises in Africa: a postcolonial historyZeitschrift für Unternehmensgeschichte, vol. 67, no. 2, 2022, pp. 167-187.

Huber, Marie. "State-owned success in the air: Ethiopian Airlines and the multinational Air Afrique in the 1960s and 1970sZeitschrift für Unternehmensgeschichte, vol. 67, no. 2, 2022, pp. 271-292.

Sami Diaf and Ulrich Fritsche. 2022. TopicShoal: Scaling Partisanship Using Semantic Search. In Proceedings of the 18th Conference on Natural Language Processing (KONVENS 2022), pages 167–174, Potsdam, Germany. KONVENS 2022 Organizers.

Foltas, Alexander. "Testing Investment Forecast Efficiency with Forecasting Narratives." Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 242.2 (2022): 191-222.

Lino Wehrheim (2022): The Sound of Silence. On the (In)visibility of Economists in the Media, in: Vierteljahrschrift für Sozial- und Wirtschaftsgeschichte, Vol. 109, No. 1, pp. 29–71.

Conrad, C., Z. Enders, and A. Glas (2022). "The Role of Information and Experience for Households' Inflation Expectations.European Economic Review, 143, 104015.

Sami Diaf, Jörg Döpke, Ulrich Fritsche, and Ida Rockenbach, „Sharks and Minnows in a Shoal of Words: Measuring Latent Ideological Positions Based on Text Mining Techniques“, European Journal of Political Economy, Januar 2022, 102179,

Faia, Ester: Health Externalities and Policy: the Role of Social Preferences, with L. Alfaro, N. Lamersdorf and F. Saidi. NBER W.P. 27134. CEPR D.P. 14716. September 2022. Management Science.



Faia, Ester: Biases in Information Selection and Processing: Survey Evidence from the Pandemic, with A. Fuster, V. Pezone and B. Zafar. 2021, Review of Economics and Statistics.

Faia, Ester: Ambiguity Attitudes, Leverage Cycle and Asset Prices, with M. Bassanin and V. Patella. Journal of International Economics, vol. 129, March 2021.

Foltas, Alexander, and Christian Pierdzioch. "On the efficiency of German growth forecasts: an empirical analysis using quantile random forests and density forecasts." Applied Economics Letters (2021): 1-10.

Foltas, Alexander, and Christian Pierdzioch. "Business-cycle reports and the efficiency of macroeconomic forecasts for Germany." Applied Economics Letters (2021): 1-7.

Franziska Ploessl, Tobias Just, Lino Wehrheim (2021): Cyclicity of real estate-related trends: topic modelling and sentiment analysis on German real estate news, in: Journal of European Real Estate Research, Vol. 14, No. 3, pp. 381-400.

Lino Wehrheim, Tobias A. Jopp, Mark Spoerer (2021): Diskurs, Narrativ, Sonderweg, Hitler, Turn. Konjunkturen geschichtswissenschaftlicher Begriffe im „Clio Viewer", in: Historische Zeitschrift, Issue 313, No. 1, pp. 129–154. Together with Tobias A. Jopp and Mark Spoerer.

Conrad, Christian/ Enders, Zeno/ Müller, Gernot: Die EZB setzt ihre Glaubwürdigkeit aufs Spiel, in: Ökonomenstimme (16 Dec. 2021). URL:

Lenel, Laetitia: Searching for a Tide Table for Business: Interwar Conceptions of Statistical Inference in Business Forecasting, in: History of Political Economy 53/S1 (2021), pp. 139–174.

Guinnane, Timothy W./ Streb, Jochen: The Introduction of Bismarck’s Social Security System and its Effects on Marriage and Fertility in Prussia, in: Population and Development Review 47,3 (2021), p. 749-780.

Wehrheim, Lino: Experten im politischen Sturm, in: Süddeutsche Zeitung, 21.3.2021,

Nützenadel, Alexander, ed.: Forum: The Financial Crisis and its Legacies, in: Journal of Modern European History 19, 1 (2021), pp. 3-39. Contributions from Catherine R. Schenk, Jan-Otmar Hesse, Ingo Köhler, Martin Daunton, Charlotte Bartels and Salvatore Morelli.



Nützenadel, Alexander. State, Banks and the Financialization of Sovereign Debt in Italy since the 1970s, in: Nicolas Barreyre, Nicolas Delalande (eds.), World of Public Debts: A Political History, Basingstoke, 2020, p. 405-425

Michael Buchner, Tobias A. Jopp, Mark Spoerer, Lino Wehrheim (2020): Zur Konjunktur des Zählens – oder wie man Quantifizierung quantifiziert. Eine empirische Analyse der Anwendung quantitativer Methoden in der deutschen Geschichtswissenschaft, in: Historische Zeitschrift, Issue 310, No. 3, pp. 580–621. 

Lenel, Laetitia: Gezeiten der Wirtschaft. Konjunkturprognosen und ihre Inszenierung, in: Geschichte der Gegenwart, 22.11.2020,

Lenel, Laetitia: Public and Scientific Uncertainty in the Time of COVID-19, History of Knowledge, May 13 2020,

Daniel, Volker/ter Steege, Lucas: Inflation Expectations and the Recovery from the Great Depression in Germany, Explorations in Economic History 75 (2020) Article 131305.

Döpke, Jörg / Fritsche Ulrich / Waldhof, Gabi: Never Change a Losing Horse? On Adaptions in German Forecasting after the Great Financial Crisis, in: Fritsche, Ulrich / Köster, Roman /Lenel, Laetitia (eds.), Futures Past. Economic Forcasting in the 20th and 21st Century, Berlin et al.: Peter Lang 2020, pp. 191-218.

Fritsche, Ulrich / Köster, Roman /Lenel, Laetitia (eds.), Futures Past. Economic Forcasting in the 20th and 21st Century, Berlin et al.: Peter Lang 2020.

Köhler, Ingo, Marketing als Lockmittel des Konsums: Innovationen in Marktforschung und Werbung, in: Christian Kleinschmidt u. Jan Logemann (Hg.), Wirtschaft und Konsum. Konsum im 19. und 20. Jahrhundert (Handbücher zur Wirtschaftsgeschichte, hrsg. von Marcel Boldorf und Christian Kleinschmidt), Berlin/München/Boston 2020, S. 459-482.

Lehmann-Hasemeyer, S./Wahl, F. (2020): Saving banks and the Industrial Revolution in Prussia - supporting regional development with public financial institutions. in: Hohenheimer Discussion papers, 18-2017; Economic History Review,

Lehmann-Hasemeyer, S., & Streb, J. (2020). Discrimination against Foreigners: The Wuerttemberg Patent Law in Administrative Practice, in: The Journal of Economic History, 1-30.

Pierdzioch, Christian/Risse, Marian (2020): Forecasting Precious Metal Returns With Multivariate Random Forests, in: Empirical Economics 58/3:1167-1184.

Behrens, Christopher: Evaluating the joint efficiency of German trade forecasts - a nonparametric multivariate approach, in: Applied Economics 52/34 (2020), pp. 3732-3747



Cross, Gary / Köhler, Ingo / Logemann, Jan, Beyond the Mad Men: Consumer Engineering and the Rise of Marketing Management, 1920s-1970s – An Introduction, in: idem (eds.), Consumer Engineering 1920s-1970s. Marketing between Expert Planning and Consumer Responsiveness (Worlds of Consumption Series), New York: Palgrave 2019, S. 1-20.

Köhler, Ingo, Imagined Images, Surveyed Consumers. Market Research as a Means of Consumer Engineering, 1950s-1980s, in: Gary Cross / Ingo Köhler / Jan Logemann (eds.), Consumer Engineering 1920s-1970s. Marketing between Expert Planning and Consumer Responsiveness (Worlds of Consumption Series), New York 2019, S. 191-212.

Lehmann-Hasemeyer, S. & Opitz, A. (2019): The value of active politicians on supervisory boards: evidence from the Berlin stock exchange and the parliament in interwar Germany, in: Scandinavian Economic History Review, 67(1), 71-89.

Lehmann-Hasemeyer, S. & Neumayer, A. (2019): Does the preference for investment in local firms rise in turbulent times? Evidence from the portfolio of Joseph Frisch, private banker (1923–55), in: Journal of Business History/Zeitschrift für Unternehmensgeschichte, 64(1), 1-18.

Pahlow, Louis/Schneider, Michael C.: Global flows of knowledge. Expectations toward transnational regulatory aspects of intellectual property rights in the 20th century chemical industry, in: Management & Organizational History, 14 (4), 2019, pp. 350–365.

Pierdzioch, Christian/Gupta, Rangan/Nyakabawo, Wendy/Risse, Marian: On REIT Returns and (Un-)Expected Inflation: Empirical Evidence Based on Bayesian Additive Regression Trees, in: Finance Research Letters 30: 160-169.

Rohloff, S. (2019): Commodity prices and the AUD-Yen exchange rate: A real-time forecasting analysis. Applied Economics 51: 1360-1382.

Fritsche, Ulrich/ Döpke, Jörg/ Reichmann, Werner: Videokatalog - Interviews mit Wirtschaftsprognostikern (Hamburg, 2017-2019).

Behrens, Christopher: A Nonparametric Evaluation of the Optimality of German Export and Import Growth Forecasts under Flexible Loss, in: Economies 7/3 (2019), 93.



Behrens, C./Pierdzioch, C./Risse, M. (2018): A Test of the Joint Efficiency of Macroeconomic Forecasts Using Multivariate Random Forests. Journal of Forecasting 37: 560−572.

Behrens, C./Pierdzioch, C./Risse, M. (2018): Testing the Optimality of Inflation Forecasts Under Flexible Loss with Random Forests. Economic Modelling 72: 270−277.

Bonato, M./Demirer, R./Pierdzioch, C./Gupta, R. (2018): Gold Futures Returns and Realized Moments: A Forecasting Experiment Using a Quantile-Boosting Approach. Resources Policy 57: 196−212.

Daniel, Volker/Neubert, Magnus/Orban, Agnes: Fictional Expectations and the Global Media in the Greek Debt Crisis: A Topic Modeling Approach, in: Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte/Economic History Yearbook 59 (2/2018), pp. 525–566).

Daniel, Volker/Peters, Robert: Greece and the media – A qualitative assessment of the news impact on credit conditions in the Greek debt Crisis, in: Peters, Robert/Altmann, Philip (eds.), “Complexity and Truth”, Special Issue of the Journal of Sociocybernetics 01/2018, ISA RC51, pp. 69-99.

Fastenrath, Florian/Orban, Agnes/Trampusch, Christine: From Economic Gains to Social Losses: How Stories Shape Expectations in the Case of German Municipal Finance, in: KZfSS Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie 70 (2018), Supplement 1, pp. 89–116

Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle/Streb, Jochen: Does Social Security Crowd Out Private Savings? The Case of Bismarck’s System of Social Insurance, in: European Review of Economic History 22 (2018), pp. 298-321

Lenel, Laetitia: Mapping the Future. Business Forecasting and the Dynamics of Capitalism in the Interwar Period, in: Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte/Economic History Yearbook 59 (2/2018), pp. 377-413.

Neumayer, Andreas: There’s No Place Like Home. Investors’ Home Bias in Germany, 1898-1934, in: Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte/Economic History Yearbook 59 (2/2018), pp. 447–469.

Opitz, A. (2018). Reichstag Connections in Pre-and Interwar Germany, in: Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte/Economic History Yearbook, 59(1), 157-185.

Opitz, A. (2018). “Comrades, Let's March!”. The Revolution of 1905 and its impact on financial markets, in: European Review of Economic History, 22(1), 28-52.

Pahlow, Louis/Rassow, Verena: Marktprognosen im Interesse der Strukturpolitik. Fusionskontrollverfahren vor dem Bundeskartellamt in den 1970er und 1980er Jahren, in: Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte/Economic History Yearbook 59 (2/2018), pp. 343–376.

Pierdzioch, C./Reid, M.B./Gupta, R. (2018): On the Directional Accuracy of Inflation Forecasts: Evidence from South African Survey Data. Journal of Applied Statistics 45: 884−900.

Pindl, Kathrin: Grain Policies and Storage in Southern Germany: The Regensburg Hospital (17th-19th Centuries), in: Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte/Economic History Yearbook 59 (2/2018), pp. 415–445

Piro, Katerina: Kinderwunsch im Krieg: Kriegserfahrung und Fertilität in Deutschland im Zweiten Weltkrieg, in: Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte/Economic History Yearbook 59 (2/2018), pp. 471–505



Nützenadel, Alexander. Wagnis und Erwartung. Terrainunternehmer, Hausbesitzer und Immobilienspekulanten in Berlin um 1900, in: Stefan Brakensieg, Christoph Marx and Benjamin Scheller (eds.), Wagnisse. Risiken eingehen, Risiken analysieren, von Risiken erzählen, Frankfurt am Main 2017, p. 127-150

Nützenadel, Alexander. The Political Economy of Public Finances. Taxation, State Spending and Debt since the 1970s, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 2017 (with Marc Buggeln und Martin Daunton)

Döpke, Jörg/Fritsche, Ulrich/Pierdzioch, Christian: Predicting Recessions with Boosted Regression Trees, in: International Journal of Forecasting 33 (2017), pp. 745-759

Fritsche, Ulrich/Pierdzioch, Christian: Animal Spirits, the Stock Market, and the Unemployment Rate: Some Evidence for German Data, in: Economics Bulletin 37 (2017), 1, pp. 204-213



Nützenadel, Alexander. Memories of Crisis. The Great Depression and the German Economic Debate after 1945, in: Thomas Lindenberger and Martin Sabrow (eds.), German Zeitgeschichte. Konturen eines Forschungsfeldes, Göttingen 2016, p. 193-209

Köhler, Ingo/Schulze, Benjamin: Resilienz. Unternehmenshistorische Dimensionen der Krisenrobustheit am Beispiel deutscher Brauereien in den 1970er Jahren, in: Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte/Economic History Yearbook 57 (2/2016), pp. 455-491

Pierdzioch, C./Reid, M.B./Gupta, R. (2016): Forecasting the South African Inflation Rate: On Asymmetric Loss and Forecast Rationality. Economic Systems (2016) 40: 82−92.

Pierdzioch, C./Reid, M.B./Gupta, R. (2016): Inflation Forecasts and Forecaster Herding: Evidence from South African Survey Data. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics 62: 42−50.