Prof. Dr. Jochen Streb, Mannheim (Principal Investigator)

Prof. Dr. Alexander Nützenadel, Berlin (Principal Investigator)

We are pursuing two goals with this project: On the one hand, we want to write a history of economic expectation in the modern age, with a special emphasis on the new empirical insights of the Priority Program. On the other hand, we want to develop an innovative historical theory of expectation formation that will also be relevant for research in economics. These are our three central questions: 1. How have the determinants of expectation formation changed over time, and what do these alterations imply for the theory of expectation formation? 2. How do economic expectations and historical experience relate to each other? To what extent are individual expectations influenced by biographical or collective experiences, and in what way do expectations shape the interpretation of experiences? 3. How do expectations change during crises and under the influence of exogenous shocks? To answer those questions we will revert to our own research, integrate empirical findings from the other projects of the Priority Program, and collect additional quantitative and qualitative information.